Economics, Environmental Science, Natural Resources, Violence in Society, Sociology, International & World Politics, History & Theory, Environmental Studies, Political History, International Relations 

The Earth's human population is expected to pass eight billion by the year 2025, while rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. Thomas Homer-Dixon argues in this sobering book that these environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world. Homer-Dixon synthesizes work from a wide range of international research projects to develop a detailed model of the sources of environmental scarcity. He refers to water shortages in China, population growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and land distribution in Mexico, for example, to show that scarcities stem from the degradation and depletion of renewable resources, the increased demand for these resources, and/or their unequal distribution. He shows that these scarcities can lead to deepened poverty, large-scale migrations, sharpened social cleavages, and weakened institutions. And he describes the kinds of violence that can result from these social effects, arguing that conflicts in Chiapas, Mexico and ongoing turmoil in many African and Asian countries, for instance, are already partly a consequence of scarcity. Homer-Dixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and an educated populace. But he argues that the violent consequences of scarcity should not be underestimated--especially when about half the world's population depends directly on local renewables for their day-to-day well-being. In the next decades, he writes, growing scarcities will affect billions of people with unprecedented severity and at an unparalleled scale and pace. Clearly written and forcefully argued, this book will become the standard work on the complex relationship between environmental scarcities and human violence. 

The Earth's human population is expected to pass eight billion by the year 2025, while rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. Thomas Homer-Dixon argues in this sobering book that these environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world. Homer-Dixon synthesizes work from a wide range of international research projects to develop a detailed model of the sources of environmental scarcity. He refers to water shortages in China, population growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and land distribution in Mexico, for example, to show that scarcities stem from the degradation and depletion of renewable resources, the increased demand for these resources, and/or their unequal distribution. He shows that these scarcities can lead to deepened poverty, large-scale migrations, sharpened social cleavages, and weakened institutions. And he describes the kinds of violence that can result from these social effects, arguing that conflicts in Chiapas, Mexico and ongoing turmoil in many African and Asian countries, for instance, are already partly a consequence of scarcity. Homer-Dixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and an educated populace. But he argues that the violent consequences of scarcity should not be underestimated--especially when about half the world's population depends directly on local renewables for their day-to-day well-being. In the next decades, he writes, growing scarcities will affect billions of people with unprecedented severity and at an unparalleled scale and pace. Clearly written and forcefully argued, this book will become the standard work on the complex relationship between environmental scarcities and human violence. - from Amzon 

Table of Contents

1 Introduction……………………………………………................................p. 3

Aim and Structure of the Book………………….........................p. 6

Key Research Concepts, Methods, and Goals……………..........p. 8

2 Overview …………………………………………………………........................p. 12

The Critical Role of Environmental Resources…………............p. 13

Sources of Environmental Scarcity……………………………...........p. 14

The Importance of Context……………………………………............…p. 16

Pivotal Countries………………………………………………...............…..p. 18

Ingenuity and Adaptation…………………………………............………p. 25

3 Two Centuries of Debate……………………………….................…………p. 28

Neo-Malthusians versus Economic Optimists…………………....…p. 29

The Distributionist Alternative…………………………………..........….p. 35

Thresholds, Interdependence, and Interactivity………………..….p. 37

Social Friction and Adaptive Failure…………………………...........…p. 42

Appendix: How to Read a Systems Diagram………………………....p. 45

4 Environmental Scarcity………………………………………….....................p. 47

Three Sources of Scarcity…………………………………………..............p. 47

Factors Producing Scarcity………………………………………...............p. 49

The Physical Trends of Global Change…………………………….........p. 52

5 Interactions and Social Effects…………………………………...................p. 73

Interactions………………………………………………………......................p. 73

Social Effects………………………………………………………....................p. 80

Appendix: The Causal Role of Environmental Scarcity…………...p. 104

6 Ingenuity and Adaptation…………………………………….......................p. 107

The Nature and Role of Ingenuity……………………………............…p. 109

Some Factors Increasing the Requirement for Ingenuity……….p. 112

Some Factors Limiting the Supply of Ingenuity………………….....p. 114

Conclusions……………………………………………………........................p. 125

Appendix: Can Poor Countries Attain Endogenous Growth? ....p. 127

7 Violence……………………………………………………….............................…p. 133

Types of Violent Conflict…………………………….....................………p. 136

Four Further Cases………………………………………………….................p. 148

Urban Growth and Violence……………………………………..............….p. 155

Implications for International Security…………………………........….p. 166

Appendix: Hypothesis Testing and Case Selection……………....…p. 169

8 Conclusions…………………………………………………….............................p. 177

Notes…………………………………………………….............................…………p. 183

General Readings on Environmental Security………………………….......p. 241